Complete news release can be found here

Overall, the St. John’s real estate market was supported by growth in  employment,  income and population, healthy consumer spending and on-going economic momentum spurred by the local oil sector.

Residential construction activity posted record results during the January to March period, due in part to an unseasonably mild winter.  New home prices also advanced in line with  the general market trend.  First quarter housing starts activity increased 15 per cent, with 246 starts versus 214 in 2009’s first quarter.  Single-detached starts increased by 23 units  or 20 per cent, with 199 starts recorded versus 166 during the first three months of last year.

The multiple starts segment was flat, with 47 starts during the quarter compared to 48 a year ago.  The only sub-market which reported increased construction activity was the St. John’s City submarket during the January to March period (104 starts compared to 88 a year ago), with Mount Pearl posting 15 starts versus 17 during 2009’s first quarter and Paradise recording 62 versus 65 a year ago.  Conception Bay South (CBS) recorded 22 starts in the first quarter, consistent with 2009’s first quarter while starts in Torbay remained flat after this first quarter with 14. In the remainder of the CMA, starts increased from eight in the first three months of 2009 to 29 this year.

Price growth continued, with the average new house price increasing in all submarkets. In fact, the average price of a new home surpassed the $325,000 mark in St. John’s City and the $350,000 mark in Torbay. Average sales price ($354,333) and average sales growth (26.4 per cent) were highest in the Torbay submarket of the St. John’s CMA. The average new single-detached house price for the overall St. John’s CMA increased nearly 20 per cent to a record $311,638 compared to $259,990 during the first quarter of 2009. CBS  posted the lowest average new house price of $248,328 during the quarter. Paradise had the second highest rate of new house price growth in the first quarter at 25.1 per cent to  $333,388.

Throughout the St. John’s area, approximately 47 per cent of all new construction activity fell within the $300,000 plus range during the quarter.  The largest growth in market share occurred in the $400,000+ segment.  Overall, new home price growth remained brisk throughout the quarter.

SOURCE: CMHC Housing Now St. John’s CMA

Record MLS® Residential Sales during First Quarter

• „„MLS® sales increased 25.8% to a record 784 compared to 2009’s first quarter sales of 623 „„January, February and March MLS® sales were 240, 234 and 310, respectively.
• „„First quarter average MLS® residential house price climbed nearly 18% to $230,376 compared to $195,517 during the first quarter of 2009.

Market Conditions Fluctuated

• „„There were approximately 1,850 new residential listings during the first quarter compared to 1,500 during the same period in 2009 „„Active listings or inventory averaged 1,500 from January to March and around the same during Q1 of 2009.
• The sales-to-active listings ratio dipped into buyers territory, but hit 18.9% in March and averaged 17.3% during the quarter versus 13.8% in the first quarter of 2009

Active Listings Remain Low

• „„Despite the surge in new listings, record first quarter sales caused active residential listings to remain relatively low
• „„Active listings for January, February and March were 1,369, 1,503 and 1,644, respectively
• „„Although inventory was similar to 2009’s first quarter level, the 25.8% increase in sales resulted in balanced market conditions during most of the quarter

Buyers are taking advantage of favourable real estate market conditions around St. John’s and areas….sellers too are reaping the rewards. Multiple offers are a factor in our marketplace once again, with well-priced listings—especially around the $200k to $260k  price range. Properties priced at market value will likely sell quickly for top dollar. The overall pressure on sales and price is significant across the board – and it’s not likely to subside unless more inventory comes on-stream.  The Bank of Canada released today that it will keep it’s interest rate “as is” but hinted at the fact it will most likely increase in June/July due to Canada’s higher then expect latest GDP numbers.

Total # of new MLS Listings [Feb] =567 (based on residential stats)

Total # of Sales [Feb] = 259

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 2650 (residential only)

Here is a break down by area for the month of February

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 117   Sales = 66 Sales/Listings Ratio = 56%

Average Sale Price is St. John’s: $270,742 for the month of February and the 12 month average $240,470

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 13 Sales = 7  Sales/Listings Ratio = 54%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $218,063

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =64 Sales = 18 Sales/Listings Ratio =28%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $268,980

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 37 Sales = 14  Sales/Listings Ratio = 38%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $259,371

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 48   Sales = 19  Sales/Listings Ratio = 40%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $225,728

The RE/MAX Market Trends Report 2010, which examined real estate trends and developments in 16 markets across the country, found that unusually strong activity during one of the traditionally quietest months of the year has led to a sharp decline in active listings in 81 per cent of markets surveyed. The threat of higher interest rates, tighter lending criteria, and in British Columbia and Ontario, the introduction of the new Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) have clearly served to kick-start real estate activity from coast-to-coast, prompting an unprecedented influx of purchasers. As a result, 87.5 per cent of markets posted an increase in sales in January. Average price appreciated in 81 per cent of markets surveyed.

There have never been so many motivating factors in play at once. We’re in for a heated Spring market that will, in all probability, spill over into the summer months, as the window of opportunity draws to a close. The supply of homes listed for sale has been drastically reduced, housing values are once again on the upswing, and banks and governments are moving in unison toward stricter lending policies.

Markets experiencing the tightest inventory levels include Toronto (- 41 per cent); Kitchener-Waterloo (-33 per cent); Ottawa (- 30 per cent); Victoria (- 30 per cent); Greater Vancouver (- 27 per cent); Halifax-Dartmouth (- 19 per cent); London-St. Thomas (- 18 per cent); Regina (- 16 per cent); and Winnipeg (- 13 per cent). Conditions were still balanced, but starting to tighten in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, particularly in the single-family detached category.

The highest year-over-year sales gains were reported in Greater Vancouver (152 per cent), Kelowna (121 per cent), Greater Toronto (87 per cent), Victoria (69 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (58 per cent), London-St. Thomas (55 per cent) and Calgary (47 per cent). Western Canadian cities dominated the list of centres with the highest increases in price appreciation. These included Victoria at 25.5 per cent, Kelowna at 22 per cent, Greater Vancouver at 19.5 per cent, and Winnipeg at 17 per cent. St. John’s (23 per cent) and Toronto (19 per cent) were also among the frontrunners for price growth.

Affordability is the catalyst for the vast majority of purchasers in today’s housing market. While homeownership is still within reach in many major centres, levels are slipping. There is a growing sense, on both sides of the fence, that the time to act is now.

While buyers are taking advantage of favourable conditions, sellers too are reaping the rewards. Competing bids are a factor in the marketplace once again, with well-priced listings—especially at the entry-level price point—experiencing multiple offers. Properties priced at fair-market value will likely sell quickly for top dollar. The overall pressure on sales and price is significant across the board – and it’s not likely to subside unless more inventory comes on-stream.

Here is an outline of their report:

RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Strong demand with less supply results in higher prices

The residential market just keeps on rolling! Demand remains strong and supply remains tight for well located and appropriately priced homes. The underlining drivers for this strong demand appears to be the fear of having to pay more in the future, easy access to favourable financing and strong employment throughout the region. A substantial increase in land values over the past year spurred new home construction cost and more than offset a slight softening in the sub-trades. Anticipated higher borrowing cost in late 2010 may serve to increase demand in the first half of 2010; however, could weaken demand in the second half. Pending an unforeseen increase in listing inventory, further price increases is
anticipated.

MULTI-RESIDENTIAL/CONDOMINIUM SECTOR
Effective full occupancy

With the apartment complexes at effective full occupancy and no new inventory on the horizon, rental rates should continue to increase. Not surprisingly in light of these trends, investor interest remains strong. A number of older apartment buildings in the university area have been purchased, renovated and converted to condominium units. Market activity also remains strong in the small scale 2-6 unit projects as entry level investors compete for limited supply.
Prices/demand continues to strengthen in condominiums at all price points. Escalating construction costs and an aging population will stimulate condo demand and values in the coming year.

MLS® Residential Sales Increase During Fourth Quarter

• MLS® sales increased 7.5% to 1,293 compared to 2008’s fourth quarter sales of 1,203.
• October, November and December MLS® sales were 473, 421 and 399, respectively.
• Fourth quarter average MLS® residential house price climbed 10% to $212,992 compared to $193,529 during the fourth quarter of 2008 – the only consistent price growth market in Canada since 2008.

Sellers Market Conditions

• 1,257 new residential listings during the 4th quarter compared to 1,463 during the same period in 2008.
• Active listings or inventory averaged 1,542 from October to December versus a similar 1,528 during Q4 of  2008.
• Sales-to-active listings ratio hit 34% in December and averaged 29% during the fourth quarter versus 26% in Q4 of 2008.

Sellers Market Keeps Active Listings Low

• Steady demand for housing caused active residential listings to remain low during the fourth quarter.
• Active listings for October, November and December were 1,790, 1,643 and 1,192, respectively, with new listings of 601, 416 and 240, respectively.
• Steady demand paired with 7.5% more sales and 14% fewer new listings resulted in sellers market conditions.

Mortgage Rates

• Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain historically low during the first half of 2010 and increase gradually during the second half, as bond yields start to increase.
• For 2010, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 5.49% to 6.0% range.
• The record low bank rate currently sits at 0.25%, with prime at 2.25% and 5-year fixed mortgage rates at 5.49% at major Canadian banks.

“The local residential construction industry remained buoyant throughout 2009 and ended the year off just nine per cent compared to 2008’s record pace,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Despite weakness in the global economy in 2009, positive local economic and demographic factors continued to support stable residential construction activity within the St. John’s region, as well as in other urban centres across the province,” added Janes.
For Canada’s urban centres, total housing starts increased 17 per cent with 12,262 recorded in December compared to 10,488 during December of 2008. Single-detached starts increased 44 per cent to 6,222, while multiple starts of 6,040 represent a two per cent decline from a year ago. Throughout Atlantic Canada, there were 672 urban housing starts posted versus 574 the previous December, an increase of 17 per cent.

The RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report found the bounce back that began in early Spring has made this recession one of the shortest on record for real estate. Low interest rates, pent-up demand, and improved affordability levels have all played a role in the recovery now well underway. Percentage increases in sales from January to August 2009 were led by Vancouver, (up a substantial 14 per cent to 23,158), Victoria (up 7.4 per cent to 5,266), Edmonton (up 6.2 per cent to 13,691), Regina (up five per cent to 2,597), Ottawa (up 2.4 per cent to 10,830) and Toronto (up 1.8 per cent to 58,421).

Housing values are already ahead of record-breaking 2008 levels in seven of the 11 markets surveyed, including Newfoundland-Labrador (18.1 per cent year to $203,584), Regina (6.4 per cent to $244,088), Halifax-Dartmouth (3.5 per cent to $239,633), Winnipeg (3.5 per cent to $207,006), Ottawa (3.3 per cent to $301,684), and Toronto (up 0.3 per cent to $385,978). Nationally, average price hovers at $312,585, up 0.5 per cent over one year ago.

“Markets are heating up across the country,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Purchasers are clearly taking advantage of affordable prices and rock bottom interest rates. Those who missed the boat in years past have found that sitting on the sidelines can be a costly move. Prices are on the upswing and inventory levels are tightening, so the push toward home ownership is expected to continue throughout the Fall and possibly into early 2010.”

The recovery of Canada’s resale housing markets speaks to the tremendous value Canadians place on the importance of owning a home. The number of Canadians overall who own a home has increased since 1981 from 62.1 per cent to 68.4 per cent, with some markets posting even higher homeownership rates — Calgary (74.1), St. John’s (71.5), Regina (70.1), and Edmonton (69.2). Significant gains have also been made over the same period in markets such as Ottawa — where homeownership levels rose from 51.4 per cent to 66.7 per cent — and Toronto, where levels rose fro m 57.3 to 67.6 per cent.

“Despite August’s decline, the local residential construction sector has posted solid year to date results,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Employment and population growth throughout the St. John’s area this year continues to bode well for residential construction activity,” added Janes.

For Canada’s urban centres, total housing starts fell 27 per cent with 12,187 recorded in August compared to 16,807 during August of 2008. Single-detached starts decreased 26 per cent to 5,211, while multiple starts of 6,976 represent a 28 per cent decline from a year ago. Throughout Atlantic Canada, there were 835 urban housing starts posted versus 879 the previous August, a decline of 5 per cent.

Sales-to-active listings ratio increased to 19.6% in June and averaged 16.4% during Q2, indicating the market favouring buyers, particularly in April and May. However, as you can see from the chart, we are swinging upwards and my estimate we’ll see a balanced market for the third quarter. The St. John’s real estate market actually feels like a balanced market now.

The Bank of Canada left the prime lending rate at 0.25% the other day.  However mortgage rates are predicted to drift higher in 2010.