There are approximately 51 major developments that could take place in St. John’s this year. Of these developments, Pleasantville appears to be the hottest topic (as well as the largest development)  A new Canadian Forces Base  as well as 975 residential spaces. I have received a number of calls in the past few months on this new subdivision already.  This will be the hot spot for East End St. John’s homes for sure.

The old Woolworth building is slated to become an office tower/parking garage.

An $18million dollar hotel is to be built at the corner of Prescott and Water Street.

A $15million dollar hotel/condo building is being built on Temperance Street.

The old Arcade building on Water Street as well as the old CBC building are aimed to be converted to office buildings and condos.

On Tiffany Lane in the East End of St John’s a new $10million dollar condo development will be built.

In the West End of St. John’s a new $8million dollar seniors condominium complex will be built as well as another in the Center of the City on Blackmarsh Road.

A 200 home project is expected to get underway off Ruby Line and Heavy Tree Road in Mount Pearl.

Lots of new Box Stores being constructed up on Stavanger Drive Area.  (Best Buy, Kesleys, a new RONA building, a new Canadian Tire building) as well as new ones on Kesley Drive near Kenmount Terrace.

Things are certainly booming here in St. John’s.  Good times, prosperous times are ahead for Newfoundlanders.

With only a small rise in inventory in 2010, the growth in prices in the existing home market was higher than expected (approx 15% since 2009). For 2011, average house prices are forecast to increase across Atlantic Canada from a high of close to four per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), three per cent in Nova Scotia (NS) and close to one per cent in New Brunswick (NB). Prices in Prince Edward Island (PEI) are expected to rise less than one per cent in 2011. Existing home sales are expected to decline modestly.

Sales declines will vary across Atlantic Canada from one per cent in NS, close to four per cent in NB and NL and nearly eight per cent in PEI.

Although the economic forecast remains positive, recent concerns regarding the global outlook have tempered the possibility of stronger growth in 2011.

For Newfoundland and Labrador, energy and mining development will continue to be the main source of future growth. Several major capital projects will continue to  inject stimulus into the local economy and contribute to a positive outlook.

Growth in commodity prices has also provided a lift to mining companies in the interior of the province. Stronger income growth compared to the other three Atlantic provinces has also helped support the level of consumer spending, as well as the stronger than expected level of housing activity. The fishing industry will continue to pose a challenge for Newfoundland’s rural economies,  but population losses will moderate over the forecast period due to improving economic conditions in St. John’s.  Natural declines in offshore oil production will restrain GDP growth, although increased royalties received by the province will offset the effects of production declines on economic growth overall.

(source: CHMC)

Economic Performance 2009

• • Real GDP declined 8.9%.
  • Employment fell by 2.5% and the unemployment rate increased to 15.5%.
  • Retail sales grew by 2.6% – the strongest performance in the country, with Newfoundland and Labrador being one of only two provinces to record sales growth.
  • Labour income increased by 4.2% – the second best performance among provinces.
  • Housing starts of 3,057; the second highest in 20 years.
  • Capital investment growth ranked fourth among provinces.
  • Personal income growth of 3.9% and disposable income growth of 4.7%.
  • Population of 508,925 as of July 1, 2009, an increase of 0.5% and the largest percentage increase since 1983.
  • Non-resident travel and tourism visitors increased 0.7% to 483,200 with expenditure growth of 1.4% to $375 million.

• 2010 Economic Outlook
  • Real GDP forecast growth of 4.0%.
  • Employment growth of 2.3% to 219,900.
  • Unemployment rate forecast to decline 0.6 percentage points to 14.9%.
  • Personal income and disposable income growth of 3.9% and 3.3% respectively, aided by wage gains and employment growth.
  • Retail sales growth of 5.0%.
  • Increase in population of 0.5% due to positive net migration.
  • Capital investment expected to increase by 23.0% to $6.2 billion.
  • Housing starts expected to increase 1.5% to 3,102. Residential construction spending of $1.6 billion, an increase of 3.5%.
  • Value of mineral shipments expected to increase about 60%, to $3.1 billion.
  • Total overnight tourist visits expected to increase by 1.3%.

2010 Investments in Infrastructure

Funding for the Conception Bay South Bypass extension, Team Gushue Highway extension and completion of the Torbay Bypass;

2010 Investments in Diversification

More than $126 million in funding for initiatives under the Departments of Finance, Business and Innovation, Trade and Rural Development including:

• $61 million in tax credits and incentives;
• $11 million in the Regional/Sectoral Diversification Fund;
• $2 million in the Aerospace and Defence Development Fund;
• $1 million for the Innovation Enhancement Fund plus $1 million in the Commercialization Fund, both under the Innovation Strategy;
• $1 million in the Oil and Gas Manufacturing and Services Export Development Fund as part of a two-year $3 million commitment;
• $4.9 million under the five-year Oceans of Opportunity Strategy to advance the ocean technology sector; and
• Other programs including the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Fund, the Business Attraction Fund, and the Business and Market Development Program.

Newfoundland’s population has increased according to Statistic’s Canada.  The population has grown by 2,484 over the past year to 508,925. This increase might not seem like a big number, but Newfoundlander’s are accustomed to a decline in population year over year.

From April to June 2009, Newfoundland and Labrador’s population climbed 0.28%, the highest second-quarter growth rate since 1983. In contrast to the other Atlantic provinces, the increase was mostly attributable to a net gain in interprovincial migration. It was also the fourth consecutive quarter in which Newfoundland and Labrador has posted gains in its exchanges with the other provinces and territories.

On July 1, 2009, Canada’s population was estimated at 33,739,900. In the second quarter of 2009, Canada’s population grew by 121,200 (+0.36%)

Alberta was the Western province with the fastest demographic growth rate from April to June 2009, at 0.59%.

From April to June, Prince Edward Island had the fastest demographic growth rate in the Atlantic provinces at 0.53%

Oil is the talk of the province once again in Newfoundland.  This morning news reports can be read throughout the internet outlining the tenative agreement expanding the Hibernia Oil field.  Newfoundland Labrador will have a 10% stake (through crown owned Nalcor Energy) in the Hibernia South expansion. Great news as oil is currently hovering over $71 a barrel. Premier Williams made the accouncement this morning during the Newfoundland & Labrador Oil and Gas Industires Association (NOIA) conference in St. John’s.

What effect do you think this has for real estate in St. John’s?

Complete news articles can be found below

CBC.ca – $10B Hibernia South deal reached: Williams

VOCM.com – Big Day for Oil Patch

Globeandmail.com – Newfoundland gives Hibernia New Life

Thetelegram.com -Hibernia South worth $10 billion to the province: Premier

The budget was outlined today for spending in Newfoundland and Labrador. $6.7 billion in spending to be exact. Here is a link to the Newfoundland Labrador budget highlights, Building on our Strong Foundation

On the real estate front, the Newfoundland Government released their take on Newfoundland housing market conditions. While most of their data is from CREA and previously discussed earlier on this blog, I thought it important to “cut and paste” the PDF of the real estate section from the Economic Research and Analysis website as it recapped and touched on a number of important areas and facts.

Housing market conditions were robust in 2008. Housing starts increased to a level not seen since the early 1990s. Residential sales activity and prices reached record levels. Other capacity indicators like rental vacancy rates are at, or remain near, historical lows. Increased housing demand stemmed from strong economic performance, low interest rates, optimism about future major projects, and household formation.

Housing Starts

During 2008, housing starts totalled 3,261 units, up 23.1% compared to 2007. This was in contrast to activity in the Maritimes and Canada, where starts declined by 7.9% and 7.6%, respectively. While urban areas account for approximately two thirds of housing starts in the province, both urban and rural areas recorded significant gains in 2008. Urban housing starts were up 22.1% to 2,229 units and rural starts were up 25.2% to 1,032 units. Total housing starts are expected to fall to 2,648 units in 2009 as the global recession and slumping housing market in the rest of Canada weakens local consumer confidence. Since 1989, housing starts have averaged 2,333 units per year. Therefore, even with the decline expected this year, housing starts will be at relatively high levels for the local industry.

Residential Sales and Prices

Residential sales activity and prices increased to record levels last year. The number of residential properties sold in the province through the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during 2008 was 4,695, an increase of 5.0% from 4,471 in 2007.  This performance was in contrast to the national residential market. MLS® sales decreased by 17.1% in Canada and 8.9% in the Maritime provinces during 2008. According to CREA, the number of MLS® sales in the province is expected to decline by 14.8% in 2009 to 4,000.
Strong demand for housing, especially during the summer months, created a buying frenzy in 2008. The average number of active MLS® listings in the province (a measure of housing availability/supply) declined by 38.3% to 1,495 from 2,423 in 2007. Homes were being purchased as soon as they hit the market and sellers were receiving multiple offers — sometimes well above the asking price. As a result of increased demand, housing prices increased. During 2008, the average MLS® residential price was $178,477, an increase of 19.6% compared to 2007. The fourth quarter average MLS® residential price surged 27.2% over the fourth quarter in 2007, representing the only growth market in Canada.
Increased housing demand in recent years is the result of employment and income growth; household formation; low mortgage rates; and a positive business environment, facilitated in part by continued optimism surrounding a number of future major projects. In addition to these factors, industry indicated that demand for residential units was also being fuelled by expatriates living in other provinces and from residents who commute to other provinces for work purchasing property for personal use and/or investment purposes.

Rental Market
Rental vacancy rates are at or near historical lows throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. Vacancy rates in urban areas have decreased from a high of 15.4% in 1997 to just 1.1% in 2008. During 2008, vacancy rates were lowest in the St. John’s CMA (0.8%) and Corner Brook CA (0.9%), followed by Grand Falls-Windsor CA (1.9%), Gander (2.6%), and Bay Roberts CA (4.0%). Although vacancy rates are low, rental prices remain the lowest in Atlantic Canada. In 2008, the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Newfoundland and Labrador was $596 compared to $635 in New Brunswick, $660 in Prince Edward Island, and $795 in Nova Scotia. It is expected that improved labour markets, positive netmigration, higher housing prices, and a lack of new rental construction will keep vacancy rates low and place upward pressure on rental prices.