MLS® Residential Sales Increase During Fourth Quarter

• MLS® sales increased 7.5% to 1,293 compared to 2008’s fourth quarter sales of 1,203.
• October, November and December MLS® sales were 473, 421 and 399, respectively.
• Fourth quarter average MLS® residential house price climbed 10% to $212,992 compared to $193,529 during the fourth quarter of 2008 – the only consistent price growth market in Canada since 2008.

Sellers Market Conditions

• 1,257 new residential listings during the 4th quarter compared to 1,463 during the same period in 2008.
• Active listings or inventory averaged 1,542 from October to December versus a similar 1,528 during Q4 of  2008.
• Sales-to-active listings ratio hit 34% in December and averaged 29% during the fourth quarter versus 26% in Q4 of 2008.

Sellers Market Keeps Active Listings Low

• Steady demand for housing caused active residential listings to remain low during the fourth quarter.
• Active listings for October, November and December were 1,790, 1,643 and 1,192, respectively, with new listings of 601, 416 and 240, respectively.
• Steady demand paired with 7.5% more sales and 14% fewer new listings resulted in sellers market conditions.

Mortgage Rates

• Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain historically low during the first half of 2010 and increase gradually during the second half, as bond yields start to increase.
• For 2010, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 5.49% to 6.0% range.
• The record low bank rate currently sits at 0.25%, with prime at 2.25% and 5-year fixed mortgage rates at 5.49% at major Canadian banks.

CMHC released their Third quarter data for Newfoundland MLS Real estate the other day.  As expected, we are officially in a balanced market now within the  St. John’s Real Estate area.  New MLS listings edged down once again, as did the number of sales compared to September’s Newfoundland Real Estate Stats.  New listings were on par with 2008’s third quarter, but with available inventory 27% higher, this gives buyers more time to shop and compare houses.  Total number of houses that expired in October was up 53% since October of last year.  Having your house priced correctly is KEY in this market.

Total # of new MLS Listings [Oct] =397 (based on residential stats)

Total # of Sales [Oct] = 325

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 1829 (residential only)

Here is a break down by area for the month of October

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 167   Sales = 132 Sales/Listings Ratio = 79%

Average Sale Price is St. John’s: $217,032 for the month of October

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 26 Sales = 23  Sales/Listings Ratio = 88%

Average Sale Price: $218,681

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =40 Sales = 41 Sales/Listings Ratio =102%

Average Sale Price: $262,591

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 28 Sales = 19  Sales/Listings Ratio = 68%

Average Sale Price: $249,459

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 45   Sales = 31  Sales/Listings Ratio = 69%

Average Sale Price: $216,627

MLS® Residential Sales Lower during Third Quarter

• MLS® sales decreased 11% to 1,504 compared to last year’s record third quarter sales of 1,695
• July, August and September MLS® sales were 536, 472 and 496, respectively
• Third quarter average St. John’s MLS® residential house price climbed 13% to $206,852 compared to $182,306 during the third quarter of 2008 – the only consistent price growth market in Canada during the past 12 month period

Balanced Residential Resale Market

• There were 2,282 new residential listings during the third quarter compared to 2,246 during the same period last year
• However, active listings or inventory averaged 2,200 from July to September versus a much lower 1,750 during Q3 of 2008
• Sales-to-active listings ratio hit 24% in September and averaged 23% during the third quarter versus 32% in Q3 of 2008

Balanced Market Keeps Active Listings Up

• Normalized demand for housing caused active residential listings to increase 27% to the end of the third quarter
• Active listings for July, August and September were 2,301, 2,150 and 2,077, respectively, with new listings of 918, 695 and 669, respectively
• New listings were on par with 2008’s third quarter, but with available inventory 27% higher, the market was balanced

The Sellers market we saw for most of 2008 weakened during the 4th quarter, bringing us back into a balanced real estate market.  Sales to active listings ratio fell to 21% in December, but averaged 26% during Q4 versus 21% the fourth quarter of 2007.  New MLS listings increased 11% in the fourth quarter and when combined with the 9% decline in sales, total active listings began to stabilize. There were 1,463 new residential listings during the fourth quarter compared to 1,320 during Q4 of 2007, an increase of 11%. Active listings averaged 1,528 from October to December 2008 versus 2,067 during the fourth quarter of last year.

The monthly Newfoundland Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing a 1% decrease in listings this month and an increase of 21% in home purchases.  Year to date, listings are up slightly by 1% and sales up 14% compared to this time last year.  Interestingly, the total dollar value in sales was up 47% for the month of October.

Total # of New MLS Listings [Oct] = 764

Total # of Sales [Oct] = 636

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2595

The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $187,636 year to date for 2008.  Compared to $167,847 YTD for 2007.  Remember this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)

Here is a break down by area for the month of October

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 186 Sales = 136 Sales/Listings Ratio = 73%

Average Sale Price: $202,896

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 15 Sales = 17 Sales/Listings Ratio = 113%

Average Sale Price: $186,612

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =31 Sales = 36 Sales/Listings Ratio =116%

Average Sale Price: $234,681

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 28 Sales = 32   Sales/Listings Ratio = 114%

Average Sale Price: $219,193

Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 47   Sales = 40  Sales/Listings Ratio = 85%

Average Sale Price: $231,552

There were 2,246 new residential listings during the third quarter compared to 2,120 during the same period last year. With sellers conditions, active listings averaged just 1,713 from July to September versus 2,756 during the third quarter of 2007.

Sales to active listings ratio hit 36% in September and averaged 33% during the third quarter versus 19% the third quarter of 2007.

Bank of Canada cut its rate 50 basis points (0.5%) October 8th, making it a full 2% in cuts since December 2007. Bank rate currently sits at 2.50% with the prime lending rate ranging from 4.25% to 4.35% at Canadian banks (as of October 17th).  Quite possible that the Bank of Canada could cut its rate again by another 50 basis points by the end of this week lowering the lending rate to 2.00%

The monthly Newfoundland Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing an increase of 6% in listings this month and an increase of 27% in home purchases.  Year to date, listings are up 1% and sales up 13% compared to this time last year.  Properties sold in St. John’s in the $180,000 to $350, 000 range have doubled in number of units sold.

Total # of New MLS Listings [Sept] = 834

Total # of Sales [Sept] = 606

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2587

The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $183,929 year to date for 2008.  Compared to $165,813 9YTD) for 2007.  Remember this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)  Prices are closer to the $200,000 average in St. John’s, Mount Pearl and surrounding areas.

Here is a break down by area for the month of September for single family homes

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 178 Sales = 122 Sales/Listings Ratio = 67%

Average Sale Price: $192,575

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 21 Sales = 24 Sales/Listings Ratio = 114%

Average Sale Price: $177,445

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =52 Sales = 32 Sales/Listings Ratio = 61%

Average Sale Price: $210,327

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 43 Sales = 25   Sales/Listings Ratio = 54%

Average Sale Price: $219,413

Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 41   Sales = 41  Sales/Listings Ratio = 100%

Average Sale Price: $197,360

One point to note:  I’ve notice a big decrease in the properties sold in the $100,000 to $200,000 range and a large increase in properties sold over the $200,000 mark.  Particularly the $260,000 to $349,900 range.

Total # of New MLS Listings [Aug] = 758

Total # of Sales [Aug] = 595

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2675

Our Real Estate system is not showing the stats for my normal monthly Newfoundland MLS housing price break down by real estate area.

What I can report is for all of Newfoundland, the average sales price is $170,482 year to date for 2008.  Compared to $147,201 for 2007.  Remember this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)  Prices are closer to the $200,000 average in St. John’s, Mount Pearl and surrounding areas.

April, May and June MLS® sales were 308, 346 and 430, respectively

Second quarter average MLS® residential house price surged 16 percent to $169,734 compared to $146,509 during the second quarter of 2007, with additional price growth expected throughout the remainder of 2008.

There were 2,243 new residential listings during the second quarter compared to 2,344 during the same period last year

With sellers conditions, active listings averaged just 1,540 from April to June versus 2,750 during the second quarter of 2007.

Sales to active listings ratio hit 26.3 percent in June and averaged 23.5 per cent during the second quarter, nearly double the 12 percent level recorded a year ago.

Sellers Market Keeps Active Listings Down

High demand for housing has driven active residential listings much lower since mid 2007, making it increasingly difficult for some REALTORS® to obtain listings

Active listings for April, May and June were 1,411, 1,573 and 1,633, respectively

New listings decreased 4.3 percent during the second quarter and are down 4.1 percent so far this year as some sellers hold out for further price appreciation.

Bank of Canada has cut rates 150 basis points (1.50 percent) since December 2007 and will remain on hold for most of 2008

Bank rate currently sits at 3.00 percent with the prime lending rate at 4.75 percent.

One and five-year fixed mortgage rates are forecast to remain within the 6.70-7.25 and 7.00-7.50 per cent range, respectively, in 2008 and 2009, while some variable rate mortgages will remain as low as 4.10 percent

• MLS® residential sales increased 14.3 per cent to 713 units compared to last year’s first quarter sales of 624 units

• January, February and March MLS® sales were 236, 238 and 239, respectively and were held back by a lack of active listings

• Driven by low inventory, the first quarter average MLS® house price jumped 13.6 per cent to a record $156,953 compared to $138,167 during the first quarter of 2007

Resale Market Classified as Sellers

• The resale market headed quickly to a sellers classification last Fall and remained there throughout the first quarter of 2008

• Average time-on-market trended lower during the quarter, strong price growth continued and many choice properties enjoyed multiple purchase offers

• Current trends indicate the market will favor sellers once again during the second quarter, but an expected improvement in active listings may provide some relief for buyers

Active Listings Remained Low

• After falling nearly a half by January, active listings rebounded slightly during February and March, but remained low, restricting unit sales growth accordingly

• The supply of active residential listings averaged approximately 1,150 during the first quarter compared to almost double that number at 2,100 a year ago

• First quarter new listings were near last year’s first quarter level of 1,600, while active listings retreated 45 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2007

Mortgage Rates to Remain Low

• With U.S. recessionary pressures continuing, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut rates 50 basis points by June 10th

• Accordingly, mortgage interest rates are expected to remain low in 2008 and start to creep higher in 2009 as investors gain more confidence in financial markets

• One and five-year mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.25-7.25 and 6.50-7.50 per cent range, respectively, in 2008 and beyond

Total # of Sales [Dec] = 381 (Up 28% from December 2006)

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2555

As you can see, property inventory for December decreased and the number of sales have increased.

Here is a break down by area for the month of December for single family homes

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 52 Sales = 141 Sales/Listings Ratio = 271%

Average Sale Price: $180,036

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 8 Sales = 20 Sales/Listings Ratio = 250%

Average Sale Price: $170,919

Paradise Real Estate: Listings = 16 Sales = 20 Sales/Listings Ratio = 125%

Average Sale Price: $179,684

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 19 Sales = 16 Sales/Listings Ratio = 84%

Average Sale Price: $189,315

Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 12 Sales = 27 Sales/Listings Ratio = 225%

Average Sale Price: $165,418