St. John’s Real Estate outlook for 2009

January 5, 2009 · Filed Under First Time Buyers, Market Trends, St. John's Investments and St. John's Real Estate · Comment 

The first week of business for 2009,for me anyways, and already people are asking the million dollar question….where will the housing prices be in 2009?

As in most years, it’s difficult to predict.  Last year CHMC predicted 6% and RE/MAX stated at least 12%.  I remember saying after the first quarter we’ll see much higher then 12%.  The final tally for 2008 is not yet in but should be close to 23% in my opinion.

Now….where do I see the St. John’s real estate market for 2009.  Currently my mind is set at a 5% increase from 2008.

How can I say this with the US housing market expecting to drop even more, Canadian markets are predicted to lower in some areas, and the UK, no real direct relation, but the world housing market seems to be taking a hit right now.  It all boils down to consumer confidence, the provincial economy and a balanced market.  All three we are seeing in Newfoundland currently.

There are still a lot of sale pendings left over from 2008 that will help keep the numbers up for unit sales in 2009, but there is clear evidence that it’s no longer a seller’s market.  With mortgage rates still at VERY low levels, as well as increased inventory in new construction and pre-existing homes, this will leave more choices for buyers.

Personally I do not see the market going into the negative numbers, but I do see houses sitting longer on the market and “price reduced” signs being more familiar then “sold signs”.

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Hebron: the after effect

August 26, 2008 · Filed Under Market Trends, Newfoundland Oil and Gas, St. John's Investments and St. John's Real Estate · Comment 

Well, it’s almost a week since the big Hebron deal was signed.  Lots of talk, hype and rumors about the real estate market has surfaced.  I’ve “heard” houses being jacked up 40k to 50k the day after and keep getting questions from my past clients….are they true?   Remember the quote,  “Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.”  There have been a fair number of listings this past week.  None to me seem 40 to 50k over where they should be.  Does this mean that people will not be cashing in on the positive news?   Of course they will.  If I personally had my house to sell I would “try” it as well.

I was interviewed by CBC Radio last week, the same day that Hebron was signed, and asked my opinion on the effect of the news.  Here is a clip of the interview.  (Click here for the full article NL housing prices jump as Hebron signed)

Steve Winters, a realtor with Remax, said he noticed the trend begin in the spring, as speculation swirled of a coming Hebron deal.

“We’re starting to see the prices jump, and what $150,000 could get you last year is not going to get you near this year,” Winters said, adding that people from Western Canada, in places such as Fort McMurray and Vancouver, are buying homes on the northeast Avalon sight unseen.

Winters said some people in Newfoundland may get pushed out of the market because of the sudden increase, and that home buyers may not be able to buy the house for which they just received mortgage approval from a bank.

Personally, my thoughts for the rest of this year:  gains will be fairly consistant in an upward trend.  Maybe another 5% gain til the end of 2008.  Remember we have already seen at least a 20% increase from the beginning of the year from current stats.

CHMC is stating that the next 3 - 5 years look VERY promising for Newfoundland Real Estate.  A 15% - 20% increase per year.  Quite possible to double the cost of a property in St. John’s in 5 years in a good area.

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