The St. John’s housing market slowed as expected during the second quarter of 2011. Here is CMHC’s Housing Now Report.

The current price environment, combined with a significant inventory of unsold homes, contributed to reduced housing market activity during the second quarter of 2011. New home construction was flat and the MLS® residential market posted a decline in sales. Average prices in both the new and existing markets continued to advance. From an economic perspective, growth in population, income and employment continued to add support to the local housing market.

New Home Construction Flat
Residential construction activity was flat throughout the St. John’s area during the second quarter. New home prices, however, continued to advance compared to the same period in 2010. Total housing starts were down approximately one per cent, with 572 starts versus 576 in 2010’s second quarter. However, there were only 387 single-detached starts compared to 499 during the second quarter of 2010, which represents a 22 per cent decline for this segment. This was offset by higher multiple starts activity, with a total of 185 units during the quarter compared to 77 a year ago. The multiple segment was led mainly by 174 starts in the form of apartments (basement) and condos.

MLS® Residential Market Favours Buyers
A modest decline in sales and higher inventory saw the market remain favourable for buyers during the second quarter. In terms of resale market characteristics, buyers had a much broader choice of homes with available inventory approximately 34 per cent higher than a year ago. Listings remained on the market for an average of 70 days, while prices continued to show gains compared to the April to June period of 2010. Despite higher inventory, offers came in at approximately 98 per cent of asking price. For the St. John’s area, there were 2,145 new residential listings compared to 1,876 during the same period last year. Active listings averaged 1,971 per month, versus 1,472 per month during the second quarter of 2010. The sales-to-active listings ratio averaged 14 per cent compared to 20 per cent during the same period a year ago.

MLS® Prices Increase Despite Sales Decline
With existing home sales lower and inventory higher throughout the St. John’s area, the average MLS® residential price still showed growth compared to the same period in 2010. The number of MLS® sales declined 10.5 per cent with 803 sales compared to 2010’s second quarter total of 897 units. The average MLS® residential price in the St. John’s CMA was 8.5 per cent higher than it was a year ago. Despite a decline in sales activity and increased inventory in the second quarter, the average MLS® residential price was $265,615 compared to $244,716 during the second quarter of 2010. The average price stabilized and remained around the $265,000 level throughout the quarter and continued to be supported by positive local economic conditions.
At the provincial level, there were 970 MLS® sales compared to 1,094 in the second quarter of 2010. The average MLS® residential price in Newfoundland was $248,525 during the April to June period – an increase of seven per cent.

ST. JOHN’S, May 9, 2011 – Housing starts in the St. John’s region declined during the month of April, according to preliminary data released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). April’s housing starts totaled 71 units throughout the St. John’s area compared to 129 units in April  of 2010. There were five additional starts recorded in urban centres outside the St. John’s area, for a total of 76 urban housing starts across the province.

“New home construction activity slowed in April, with significant declines recorded in both single and multiple starts,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “While housing starts are forecast to end the year down from 2010 levels, the trend to lower levels of activity is expected to moderate in the coming months,” added Janes.

In urban centres across Canada, total housing starts recorded in April were down 15 per cent to 13,528 units compared to last year’s total of 15,897. Single-detached starts declined 27 per cent to 5,382 units, while multiple starts decreased four per cent to 8,146 units in April. In the Atlantic region, 551 new units were started compared to 640 units during April 2010.

The complete CHMC Report can be found here.

CMHC just released their First Quarter 2011 edition of  Housing Now – Major Centres – St. John’s.  You can view the entire PDF release here http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64199/64199_2011_Q01.pdf

Here are some of the highlights:

- High prices and an increasing inventory of unsold new and existing homes saw  housing market activity continue to slow during the fourth quarter of 2010

- During the October to December period, both new home construction and resale market activity registered declines.

- Average prices,  however, advanced compared to 2009, but remained relatively unchanged on a  month-over-month basis

- Residential construction activity declined moderately

- Total housing starts were down approximately six per cent, with 488 starts versus 520 in 2009’s fourth quarter

- The overall average new house price for the St. John’s CMA was $326,954

- 50 per cent of all new single-detached homes sold for more than $300,000 during the quarter

- decline in sales and increased inventory, positioned the market as buyers again during the fourth quarter

- buyers had a much broader choice of homes because available inventory  increased approximately 40 per cent in the quarter, including a 56 per cent surge in December

- Listings remained on the market for an average of 65 days

- Despite higher inventory, offers came in at approximately 96 per cent of asking
price

- The average MLS® residential price in Newfoundland was $238,696 during the October to December period – an increase of 12 per cent.

ST. JOHN’S, March 8, 2010 – Urban housing starts increased during the month of February, according to preliminary released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). February’s housing starts totaled 68 throughout the St. John’s area versus 45 starts in February of 2009. There were no additional starts recorded outside the St. John’s area. “February’s brisk residential construction activity was attributed to a combination of continued demand and an unseasonably mild winter month,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Local economic and demographic conditions continue to support new home construction throughout the St. John’s region and the first two months of 2010 indicate a solid start to the year,” added Janes.

CMHC just released the following report on housing starts in St. John’s.

Urban housing starts were positive during the first quarter of 2009, despite retreating slightly during the month of March, according to preliminary released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Housing starts totaled 214 throughout the St. John’s area during the first quarter compared to 172 starts during the same period last year. For the month of March, there were 45 starts compared to 55 during March of 2008. With 224 total starts recorded province-wide versus 176 a year ago, Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province in Canada with positive first quarter results.

“Despite retreating slightly during the month of March, urban housing starts posted solid results during the first quarter of this year, increasing 24 per cent over the same threemonth period in 2008,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “The local economy remains stable and continues to support housing market activity,” added Janes.

For Canada’s urban centres, total housing starts fell 45 per cent with 8,629 recorded in March compared to 15,616 during March of 2008. Single-detached starts decreased 46 per cent to 2,566, while multiple starts of 6,063 represent a 44 per cent decline from a year ago. Throughout Atlantic Canada, there were 244 urban housing starts posted
versus 522 the previous March.

New home construction in Canada is slowing to more sustainable levels and starts are forecast to come in at 160,250 units, within a range of 141,000 to 180,000 units in 2009. These trends are reflected in the year-to-date actual starts. These decreases, however, should be viewed in the context that housing starts have been exceptionally strong over
the past 7 years, exceeding 200,000 units per year.

Strong economic performance is fueling sales of luxury homes priced in excess of $400,000 in St. John’s this year. Year-to-date MLS reported sales over $400,000 have climbed 78 per cent, reaching 50 units in the first seven months of 2008, compared to 28 at the same time in 2007. The increase in sales activity of luxury homes extends much further than the MLS statistics reveal considering the present record volume of new executive home construction.

Under the leadership of Premier Danny Williams, Newfoundland has flourished.  Strength in the energy sector has bolstered the local economy and residential housing sales.  Unemployment is at a record low and wages continue to rise. The average price of a home has increased significantly, prompting unprecedented move-up activity.  Sales are up across the board with price points climbing in more and more communities. Once a rarity in Newfoundland, homes sales are now beginning to occur over $1 million.

Although a considerable amount of new home construction exists in St. John’s, demand for new homes continues to outpace supply.  A shortage of skilled trades is the trouble point within the marketplace, as many skilled trades people have migrated to Alberta for work in recent years. This factor burdens the ability to satisfy the demand for new homes. The construction period for production of an average single family dwelling that would typically require a five to six-month schedule is now taking double the amount of time to complete.

Inventory levels are up in the $400,000 plus price range, but quality listings are few and far between with a shortage in key luxury neighbourhoods.  Sought-after locations in St. John’s and surrounding areas include Churchill Square, King William Estates, Waterford Valley, Country Gardens, Hogan’s Pond, and specific regions within the communities of Topsail and Manuels, where properties are priced from $500,000 to $2 million.

Luxury homes priced at fair market value tend to sell within 30 days, while excessive overpriced listings stagnate. Well-priced properties in coveted neighbourhoods are experiencing multiple offers.

The majority of buyers are young professionals in their late 30s and 40s. Many are employed by the oil and gas industry, or hold high-paying jobs in business, engineering, and medicine. Transfers from out-of-province and international buyers represent a significant presence at the top-end of the market, with many investing in established neighbourhoods, the urban core, and ocean view or pond frontage properties.

Price appreciation has experienced a huge jump in recent years with values up as much as 35 per cent over the last two years in the luxury market.  The majority of upper-end sales occur at the $500,000 to $900,000 price points.  Currently, the highest priced residential listing is $1,475,000.

The offshore development of Hebron, Newfoundland’s fourth oil field, located just 350 kilometers from St. John’s, is forecast to further impact the local economy.  In the foreseeable future, the province is expected to receive significant royalties from offshore oil activity.  The revenues will help diminish the highest per-capita debt in the country and secure Newfoundland’s economic outlook and that of the residential real estate market.
Leading the country in terms of percentage increase in luxury home sales are Regina (up 306 per cent); Winnipeg (up 89 per cent); St. John’s (up 78 per cent); Saskatoon (up 72 per cent); Kitchener-Waterloo (up 47 per cent); Ottawa (up 36 per cent); Halifax-Dartmouth (up 20 per cent); London (up 14 per cent); Greater Vancouver (up five per cent); and Victoria (up four per cent). Solid performance is likely a result of consumer confidence, particularly in provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and parts of Ontario where solid economic fundamentals helped to bolster the number of homes sold in the upper-end.

There has been quite a debate around the “real estate water cooler” in recent weeks.  Towards the end of 2007  some local builders and subdivisions in St. John’s implemented a new “Economic Clause” to their contracts.  Buyers have been noted to shy away from certain subdivisions and proceed to others that do not insert this clause.  The debate is over whether this clause protects the buyer or the builder.   Does it protect the buyer from an increase in purchase price of the house?  Does it allow the builder the option to raise the price of the house prior to starting construction?

The clause states:

“This Agreement of Purchase and Sale is subject to the Vendor confirming to the Purchaser or the Purchaser’s Agent in writing the final sale price on or before the expiry of 14 days prior to excavation of the dwelling. If no written confirmation of the final sale price is issued by the Vendor on or before the expiry of 14 days prior to excavation of the dwelling the Purchase Price referenced herein before shall be deemed to be the final sale price. If written notification of an increase in the final sale price is issued with which the Purchaser is not satisfied then this Agreement of Purchase and Sale shall be void and of no effect. Upon receipt of the written notice of the increased final sale price from the Vendor the Purchaser must acknowledge in writing within 72 hours their agreement with the increase in price, and failure to do so renders this Agreement of Purchase and Sale void and of no effect with the Vendor returning the Purchasers Deposit or down payment.”

What are your thoughts on this clause? Are you in favor of the builder being protected or the buyer?

While new home construction in Newfoundland and Labrador is booming, it is not uncommon now to see a six month closing date on new home construction. With a good percentage of the trades people presently working in Western Canada, some contractors are finding it difficult to recruit enough local trades people.

It is estimated that as much as10,000 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are working out west for companies such as Syncrude, Suncor and Flint Energy, to name a few.

An estimated 4,000 are working on a rotational basis commuting to and from the province, bringing millions of dollars to local communities throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. Some of these commuters are staying in camps, where food, lodging and travel to and from the province are all fully paid.

Workers are drawn to jobs that often start above $100,000 per year and lots of overtime.

While it all may seem wonderful, it has to be a burden on the family structure with 20 days away and back home for 8 days of rest in a repeat cycle.

Can it last? What kind of wages would be required to keep at least some of our trades people home, and what affect will this have on the price of new construction?