CMHC just released their latest Housing Market Information statistics for the Newfoundland real estate market today. Here is a basic breakdown from the report:
MLS® Residential Sales Increase During Fourth Quarter
- MLS® sales increased 7.5% to 1,293 compared to 2008’s fourth quarter sales of 1,203.
- October, November and December MLS® sales were 473, 421 and 399, respectively.
- Fourth quarter average MLS® residential house price climbed 10% to $212,992 compared to $193,529 during the fourth quarter of 2008 – the only consistent price growth market in Canada since 2008.
Sellers Market Conditions
- 1,257 new residential listings during the 4th quarter compared to 1,463 during the same period in 2008.
- Active listings or inventory averaged 1,542 from October to December versus a similar 1,528 during Q4 of 2008.
- Sales-to-active listings ratio hit 34% in December and averaged 29% during the fourth quarter versus 26% in Q4 of 2008.
Sellers Market Keeps Active Listings Low
- Steady demand for housing caused active residential listings to remain low during the fourth quarter.
- Active listings for October, November and December were 1,790, 1,643 and 1,192, respectively, with new listings of 601, 416 and 240, respectively.
- Steady demand paired with 7.5% more sales and 14% fewer new listings resulted in sellers market conditions.
- Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain historically low during the first half of 2010 and increase gradually during the second half, as bond yields start to increase.
- For 2010, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 5.49% to 6.0% range.
- The record low bank rate currently sits at 0.25%, with prime at 2.25% and 5-year fixed mortgage rates at 5.49% at major Canadian banks.
It’s been an interesting 1st quarter for the Real Estate in Newfoundland. The sky has not fallen in the St. John’s real estate market like the media and public were anticipating. The average price for a home in St. John’s edged slightly higher (currently at $205,040 for a 12 month period). Listings have increased in number as have the number of sales for the month of March.
Mortgage rates are at all time lows. (4.15% for a 5 year term seems to be the norm at the time of posting). Variable rates have dropped considerably in the past year. The variable mortgage rate was close to 6% middle of last year compared to 3.25% now.
This month, Newfoundland’s Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing a 2% increase in sales while there was 789 new listings, an increase of 17% from last year. Majority of the sales showing were in the $200,000 to $350,000 price bracket once again.
Total # of MLS Listings [Mar] = 789
Total # of Sales [Mar] = 266
Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 2658
Here is a break down by area for the month of March
St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 148 Sales = 83 Sales/Listings Ratio = 56%
Average Sale Price: $219,257 for the month of March
Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 21 Sales = 11 Sales/Listings Ratio = 52%
Average Sale Price: $198,959
Paradise Real Estate: Listings =43 Sales = 24 Sales/Listings Ratio =56%
Average Sale Price: $235,156
East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 32 Sales = 13 Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%
Average Sale Price: $202,407
Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 47 Sales = 19 Sales/Listings Ratio = 40%
Average Sale Price: $184,753
After coming to a dramatic slowdown in December from a banner 25% price increase year, 2009 is back in full swing. Although sales are down (25% compared to last January), much needed listings are up (5%). Officially we are into a balanced market now. Increased inventory, record low mortgage rates and what appears to be still a lot of buyers, the real estate market in St. John’s should hold its own compared to the rest of Canada.
This month, Newfoundland’s Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing a 25% decrease in sales while there are currently 680 listings, an increase of 5% from last year. Majority of the sales showing were in the $200,000 to $350,000 price bracket.
Total # of New MLS Listings [Jan] = 680
Total # of Sales [Jan] = 200
Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 2289
Here is a break down by area for the month of January
St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 117 Sales = 48 Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%
Average Sale Price: $219,146 for the month of January
Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 11 Sales = 6 Sales/Listings Ratio = 55%
Average Sale Price: $208,667
Paradise Real Estate: Listings =52 Sales = 14 Sales/Listings Ratio =27%
Average Sale Price: $264,325
East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 32 Sales = 16 Sales/Listings Ratio = 50%
Average Sale Price: $229,048
Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 41 Sales = 17 Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%
Average Sale Price: $192,321
Good economic fundamentals have supported record breaking real estate activity in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2008. Despite concerns over the global economy that surfaced in October, home buyers continued to enter the real estate market en masse, bolstered by positive future prospects and Newfoundland’s new status as a ‘have’ province. While most other Canadian centres made the transition to buyer’s markets in 2008, conditions in St. John’s continued to favour the seller. First-time and move-up buyers worked in tandem throughout the year, stimulating sales in virtually all price ranges. Homes priced in excess of $250,000 were particularly robust, up 78 per cent over levels reported in 2007. Tight inventory, heated demand, and in-migration have all been behind the push for housing in the provincial capital in recent years.
Residential home sales in the province are expected to post the only gain in the country by year-end, with the number of homes sold climbing a substantial 11 per cent to 4,950 units, up from 4,471 one year ago. Housing values are also forecast to experience a serious upswing in 2008, rising 21 per cent to $180,000, an increase of over $30,000 from 2007’s historic high.
The Williams effect on the overall economy—the pro business stance that has led to job security, declining unemployment levels, tax cuts and renewed confidence in Newfoundland and Labrador – has been nothing short of remarkable. Capital projects contributing to the economic well-being of the province include Newfoundland LNG’s first natural gas trans-shipment and storage terminal near Grassy Point, valued at an estimated $1.5 billion; Vale Inco’s $2.17 billion plan to build a nickel processing plant in Long Harbour using hydromet technology—a more energy efficient, smelting method to extract nickel from Voisey’s Bay concentrated in Labrador; and the historic memorandum of understanding with the Innu Nation that will eventually lead to the development of the Lower Churchill hydroelectric mega project worth an estimated $6 billion.
Hebron will contribute $16 billion to the provincial economy over its 25-year life, and $7 billion for the Canadian economy. New home construction has also been brisk, with housing starts in the province expected to grow to 3,100 by year-end 2008 and taper back to more normal levels of activity in 2009.
With the provincial economy operating at full throttle, residential real estate in St. John’s is forecast to flourish. Consumer confidence is expected to remain high throughout 2009. Smart leadership and business opportunities should serve to attract even greater investment in the province. Migration is forecast to climb as more and more jobs are created. Seller’s market conditions should prevail in 2009, with vendors commanding larger deposits and builders asking and getting at least five per cent down for new construction.
The upper-end of the market should also thrive as higher wages translate into more expensive housing. About 4,700 homes are projected to change hands in 2009, down marginally over 2008 levels. Average price is expected to continue to climb, rising 12 per cent to $202,000 in 2009.
The monthly Newfoundland Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing an increase of 6% in listings this month and an increase of 27% in home purchases. Year to date, listings are up 1% and sales up 13% compared to this time last year. Properties sold in St. John’s in the $180,000 to $350, 000 range have doubled in number of units sold.
Total # of New MLS Listings [Sept] = 834
Total # of Sales [Sept] = 606
Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2587
The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $183,929 year to date for 2008. Compared to $165,813 9YTD) for 2007. Remember this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca) Prices are closer to the $200,000 average in St. John’s, Mount Pearl and surrounding areas.
Here is a break down by area for the month of September for single family homes
St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 178 Sales = 122 Sales/Listings Ratio = 67%
Average Sale Price: $192,575
Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 21 Sales = 24 Sales/Listings Ratio = 114%
Average Sale Price: $177,445
Paradise Real Estate: Listings =52 Sales = 32 Sales/Listings Ratio = 61%
Average Sale Price: $210,327
East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 43 Sales = 25 Sales/Listings Ratio = 54%
Average Sale Price: $219,413
Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 41 Sales = 41 Sales/Listings Ratio = 100%
Average Sale Price: $197,360