MLS® Residential Sales Increase During Fourth Quarter

• MLS® sales increased 7.5% to 1,293 compared to 2008’s fourth quarter sales of 1,203.
• October, November and December MLS® sales were 473, 421 and 399, respectively.
• Fourth quarter average MLS® residential house price climbed 10% to $212,992 compared to $193,529 during the fourth quarter of 2008 – the only consistent price growth market in Canada since 2008.

Sellers Market Conditions

• 1,257 new residential listings during the 4th quarter compared to 1,463 during the same period in 2008.
• Active listings or inventory averaged 1,542 from October to December versus a similar 1,528 during Q4 of  2008.
• Sales-to-active listings ratio hit 34% in December and averaged 29% during the fourth quarter versus 26% in Q4 of 2008.

Sellers Market Keeps Active Listings Low

• Steady demand for housing caused active residential listings to remain low during the fourth quarter.
• Active listings for October, November and December were 1,790, 1,643 and 1,192, respectively, with new listings of 601, 416 and 240, respectively.
• Steady demand paired with 7.5% more sales and 14% fewer new listings resulted in sellers market conditions.

Mortgage Rates

• Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain historically low during the first half of 2010 and increase gradually during the second half, as bond yields start to increase.
• For 2010, the posted 5-year mortgage rate is expected to be in the 5.49% to 6.0% range.
• The record low bank rate currently sits at 0.25%, with prime at 2.25% and 5-year fixed mortgage rates at 5.49% at major Canadian banks.

It’s been an interesting 1st quarter for the Real Estate in Newfoundland.  The sky has not fallen in the St. John’s real estate market like the media and public were anticipating.   The average price for a home in St. John’s edged slightly higher (currently at $205,040 for a 12 month period).  Listings have increased in number as have the number of sales for the month of March.

Mortgage rates are at all time lows. (4.15% for a 5 year term seems to be the norm at the time of posting).  Variable rates have dropped considerably in the past year.  The variable mortgage rate was close to 6% middle of last year compared to 3.25% now.

This month, Newfoundland’s Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing a 2% increase in sales while there was 789 new listings, an increase of 17% from last year.  Majority of the sales showing were in the $200,000 to $350,000 price bracket once again.

Total # of MLS Listings [Mar] = 789

Total # of Sales [Mar] = 266

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 2658

The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $205,040  compared to the provincial average of $188,111 YTD for 2009.  Note this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)

Here is a break down by area for the month of March

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 148  Sales = 83 Sales/Listings Ratio = 56%

Average Sale Price: $219,257 for the month of March

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 21 Sales = 11  Sales/Listings Ratio = 52%

Average Sale Price: $198,959

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =43 Sales = 24 Sales/Listings Ratio =56%

Average Sale Price: $235,156

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 32 Sales = 13   Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%

Average Sale Price: $202,407

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 47   Sales = 19  Sales/Listings Ratio = 40%

Average Sale Price: $184,753

After coming to a dramatic slowdown in December from a banner 25% price increase year, 2009 is back in full swing.  Although sales are down (25% compared to last January), much needed listings are up (5%).  Officially we are into a balanced market now.  Increased inventory, record low mortgage rates and what appears to be still a lot of buyers, the real estate market in St. John’s should hold its own compared to the rest of Canada.

This month, Newfoundland’s Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing a 25% decrease in sales while there are currently 680 listings, an increase of 5% from last year.  Majority of the sales showing were in the $200,000 to $350,000 price bracket.

Total # of New MLS Listings [Jan] = 680

Total # of Sales [Jan] = 200

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 2289

The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $198,757  2008.  Compared to the provincial average of $184,055 YTD for 2009.  Note this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)

Here is a break down by area for the month of January

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 117  Sales = 48 Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%

Average Sale Price: $219,146 for the month of January

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 11 Sales = 6  Sales/Listings Ratio = 55%

Average Sale Price: $208,667

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =52 Sales = 14 Sales/Listings Ratio =27%

Average Sale Price: $264,325

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 32 Sales = 16   Sales/Listings Ratio = 50%

Average Sale Price: $229,048

Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 41   Sales = 17  Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%

Average Sale Price: $192,321

Residential home sales in the province are expected to post the only gain in the country by year-end, with the number of homes sold climbing a substantial 11 per cent to 4,950 units, up from 4,471 one year ago. Housing values are also forecast to experience a serious upswing in 2008, rising 21 per cent to $180,000, an increase of over $30,000 from 2007’s historic high.

The Williams effect on the overall economy—the pro business stance that has led to job security, declining unemployment levels, tax cuts and renewed confidence in Newfoundland and Labrador – has been nothing short of remarkable.  Capital projects contributing to the economic well-being of the province include Newfoundland LNG’s first natural gas trans-shipment and storage terminal near Grassy Point, valued at an estimated $1.5 billion; Vale Inco’s $2.17 billion plan to build a nickel processing plant in Long Harbour using hydromet technology—a more energy efficient, smelting method to extract nickel from Voisey’s Bay concentrated in Labrador; and the historic memorandum of understanding with the Innu Nation that will eventually lead to the development of the Lower Churchill hydroelectric mega project worth an estimated $6 billion.
Hebron will contribute $16 billion to the provincial economy over its 25-year life, and $7 billion for the Canadian economy. New home construction has also been brisk, with housing starts in the province expected to grow to 3,100 by year-end 2008 and taper back to more normal levels of activity in 2009.

With the provincial economy operating at full throttle, residential real estate in St. John’s is forecast to flourish.  Consumer confidence is expected to remain high throughout 2009.  Smart leadership and business opportunities should serve to attract even greater investment in the province.  Migration is forecast to climb as more and more jobs are created.  Seller’s market conditions should prevail in 2009, with vendors commanding larger deposits and builders asking and getting at least five per cent down for new construction.

The upper-end of the market should also thrive as higher wages translate into more expensive housing. About 4,700 homes are projected to change hands in 2009, down marginally over 2008 levels. Average price is expected to continue to climb, rising 12 per cent to $202,000 in 2009.

The monthly Newfoundland Real Estate MLS housing price break down is showing an increase of 6% in listings this month and an increase of 27% in home purchases.  Year to date, listings are up 1% and sales up 13% compared to this time last year.  Properties sold in St. John’s in the $180,000 to $350, 000 range have doubled in number of units sold.

Total # of New MLS Listings [Sept] = 834

Total # of Sales [Sept] = 606

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System = 2587

The average price of a home in the St. John’s Real Estate market is now $183,929 year to date for 2008.  Compared to $165,813 9YTD) for 2007.  Remember this is for ALL Newfoundland (nlar.ca)  Prices are closer to the $200,000 average in St. John’s, Mount Pearl and surrounding areas.

Here is a break down by area for the month of September for single family homes

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 178 Sales = 122 Sales/Listings Ratio = 67%

Average Sale Price: $192,575

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 21 Sales = 24 Sales/Listings Ratio = 114%

Average Sale Price: $177,445

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =52 Sales = 32 Sales/Listings Ratio = 61%

Average Sale Price: $210,327

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 43 Sales = 25   Sales/Listings Ratio = 54%

Average Sale Price: $219,413

Conception Bay Real Estate: Listings = 41   Sales = 41  Sales/Listings Ratio = 100%

Average Sale Price: $197,360

I was interviewed by CBC Radio last week, the same day that Hebron was signed, and asked my opinion on the effect of the news.  Here is a clip of the interview.  (Click here for the full article NL housing prices jump as Hebron signed)

Steve Winters, a realtor with Remax, said he noticed the trend begin in the spring, as speculation swirled of a coming Hebron deal.

“We’re starting to see the prices jump, and what $150,000 could get you last year is not going to get you near this year,” Winters said, adding that people from Western Canada, in places such as Fort McMurray and Vancouver, are buying homes on the northeast Avalon sight unseen.

Winters said some people in Newfoundland may get pushed out of the market because of the sudden increase, and that home buyers may not be able to buy the house for which they just received mortgage approval from a bank.

Personally, my thoughts for the rest of this year:  gains will be fairly consistent in an upward trend.  Maybe another 5% gain til the end of 2008.  Remember we have already seen at least a 20% increase from the beginning of the year from current stats.

CMHC is stating that the next 3 – 5 years look VERY promising for Newfoundland Real Estate.  A 15% – 20% increase per year.  Quite possible to double the cost of a property in St. John’s in 5 years in a good area.

The 3 big websites that pop into my mind are

Homesplus Online – www.homesplus.nf.net

mls.ca – now updated to realtor.ca

Google Search Engine – keywords “st. john’s real estate” or “newfoundland real estate” your choice of keywords

Of course with the last choice you have the ability to search deeper into individual Realtor websites.  This one can also lead you to sites that have nothing to do real estate at all.

What online real estate resources do you use? Homesplus Online and mls.ca are fairly similar in data…..what one do you find easier to navigate?

Provincial urban housing starts were up during the first half of this year, despite a slight decrease during the month of June, according to preliminary data released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). June’s total housing starts dipped seven per cent, with 212 posted within the province compared to 228 a year ago. A total of 172 of the 212 starts were within St. John’s metro versus 180 last June.

Year-to-date, there have been 738 new homes started across the province versus last year’s total of 623 homes, an increase of 18 per cent. A total of 628 of these starts occurred within St. John’s metro, for a year-to-date increase of 20 per cent.

“The demand for newly built homes remains very high within the local housing market and the solid increase in housing starts during the first half of this year was driven by a low level of existing homes for sale,” said Chris Janes, Senior Market Analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “With a buoyant economy and positive net migration, tight market conditions are expected to continue and strong demand for housing will drive prices higher throughout the second half of 2008,” added Janes.