Average price of real estate in St. John’s has increased slightly again this month. Average price of a home in St. John’s is hovering around $288,000.  For most of the year listings have been on the increase and sales at a decrease but we are starting to see a shift in the market now.  Listings are slowly decreasing and sales are starting to pick up.  We are up 11% this month compared to 2010 but there is virtually no change on a year to date perspective.  There are lots of buyers in the market place and we are still classified as being in a “buyers market” according to CMHC. Average sales price for a home in Newfoundland is now $248,678 up from the mid 230′s from last year.  The bulk of the sales are in the 260k to 350k price range. Expired listings are up still from last year, by 25%  Contact us for a free market evaluation on your home.

Total # of MLS Listings [October] = 813 (based on residential stats)

Total # of Sales [October] = 514

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 3778

Here is a break down by area for the month of October

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 162   Sales = 102 Sales/Listings Ratio = 63%

Average sale price for a home in St. John’s: $296,165 for the month of October and the 12 month average $288,291

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 30 Sales = 25  Sales/Listings Ratio = 83%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $262,379

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =59 Sales = 40 Sales/Listings Ratio =68%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $318,443

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 45 Sales = 26  Sales/Listings Ratio = 58%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $309,886

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 48   Sales = 31  Sales/Listings Ratio = 65%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $270,910

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2011 and 2012.

Overall, sales activity and prices remained stronger than expected in the second quarter. Sales momentum was also better than expected heading into the third quarter. As a result, the 2011 national forecasts for sales activity and average price have been raised slightly.
Here are some of the key points from the news release

• National sales activity is forecast to reach 450,800 units in 2011, up less than one per cent from levels in 2010.
• British Columbia’s 2011 sales forecast revised slightly higher, (home sales there appear to have bottomed out sooner than expected)
•  Stronger than expected activity in Ontario offset slightly softer than anticipated demand in Quebec, Manitoba, and Newfoundland in the second quarter of 2011.
• Ontario sales forecast for 2011 has been raised, while the outlook for activity in Quebec, Manitoba, and Newfoundland has been revised lower.
• National sales activity in 2012 is forecast to ease seven tenths of a percentage point to 447,700 units
• The national average home price is forecast to rise 7.2 per cent in 2011 to $363,500.

CMHC released the July Housing Starts for the St. John’s Area report yesterday. Below is the press release.

ST. JOHN’S, August 9, 2011 – Housing starts in the St. John’s region were up during the month of July, according to preliminary data1 released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). July’s housing starts totaled 258 units throughout the St. John’s area compared to 176 units in July of 2010. There were 24 additional starts recorded in urban centres outside the St. John’s region, for a total of 282 provincial urban housing starts.

“A sizeable increase in multiple housing starts activity contributed to the overall gains in new home construction throughout the St. John’s area in July,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Single-detached starts were up 12 per cent in July to 154 units. Despite the monthly gains, the trend towards lower levels of single housing starts in 2011 remains, with this segment of the market down 15 per cent compared to a year ago,” added Janes.

In urban centres across Canada, total housing starts recorded in July were up three per cent to 16,486 units compared to 15,947 a year ago. Single-detached starts declined 11 per cent to 6,396 units, while multiple starts increased 15 per cent to 10,090 units in July. In the Atlantic region, 1,318 new homes were started compared to 1,348 units during July 2010.

Results of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)’s Spring 2011 Rental Market Survey released today indicate that the overall vacancy rate was up in provincial urban centres in April 2011. The overall vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent, an increase of one per cent from last April’s rate of 1.1 per cent.
The St. John’s area rental market posted a vacancy rate of two per cent in April 2011 compared to 1.1 per cent last April. “With an active labour market, population growth will continue to create rental demand and keep vacancy rates low within the region,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “High home prices and a strong economy are supporting demand for rental units. These factors, coupled with limited new rental supply being added to the market, continue to keep the vacancy rate low,” added Janes.
The Corner Brook area posted the lowest vacancy rate in the province at 1.7 per cent compared to 0.8 per cent a year ago. Other centres surveyed recorded the following vacancy rates: the Gander area increased to 2.3 per cent from 0.6 per cent last year and the Grand Falls-Windsor area came in at 2.7 per cent, a vacancy rate comparable to last year.

Average price of a house in St. John’s increased slightly this month. March average sale price was approx $277,000, for April it is $285,000. Average sales price year to date is up as well, almost 6.5% (all of Newfoundland) Interestingly the current real estate market certainly doesn’t reflect this increase.  From looking at the break down in homes sold, it appears that this data is a little “skewed” as a majority of the houses sold were in the 260k to 350k price range, hence bringing up the average prices. Currently, HALF of the homes on the market expire.  Meaning they do not sell.  From my opinion, majority of the houses currently on the market are WAY overpriced.  We are seeing a large number of reductions in prices.  Houses are sitting on the market an average of 60 days before selling.  I don’t think we will see a drop in the average house prices, but we will certainly see a lot of home owners having to reduce their homes to be in line with the market.  It seems that I have the following statement each month……but….. proper pricing on your home is key in this market and will be the same trend in 2011.  Contact us for a free market evaluation on your home.

Total # of new MLS Listings [April] = 814 (based on residential stats)

Total # of Sales [April] = 303

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 3700

Here is a break down by area for the month of April

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 190   Sales = 81 Sales/Listings Ratio = 42%

Average sale price for a home in St. John’s: $285,097 for the month of April and the 12 month average $281,644

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 32 Sales = 18  Sales/Listings Ratio = 41%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $252,736

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =55 Sales = 26 Sales/Listings Ratio =52%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $310,525

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 53 Sales = 15  Sales/Listings Ratio = 33%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $290,202

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 44   Sales = 15  Sales/Listings Ratio = 40%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $258,061

Average price of a house in St. John’s dropped for the month of March.  In January the average selling price (for that month only) was up over $300,000.  See January MLS Stats here.  For March the average was approx $277,000.  The good news is yearly average prices haven’t dropped.  They are actually up slightly.  This is true for all areas in and around St. John’s.  Sales/Listings Ratio have increased as well indicating we are starting to ramp up for the spring market.

The general population seems to think there are numerous homes for sale currently. (present company included)  However,  total number of listings for the year (compared to last year) is down 3%.  I was surprised to see this as it doesn’t feel this way.  This false impression I suspect is due to the drop in sales ( 5% YTD) and the large increase in expired listings – ( up 45% YTD).  This coupled with houses staying on the market a lot longer then we are used to in recent years. I said it before….proper pricing on your home is key in this market and will be the same trend in 2011.  Contact us for a free market evaluation on your home.

Total # of new MLS Listings [March] = 873 (based on residential stats)

Total # of Sales [March] = 335

Number of Active Listings in the NLAR MLS System (ALL of Newfoundland) = 3477

Here is a break down by area for the month of March

St. John’s Real Estate: Listings = 173   Sales = 75 Sales/Listings Ratio = 40%

Average sale price for a home in St. John’s: $277,025 for the month of March and the 12 month average $279,472

Mount Pearl Real Estate: Listings = 45 Sales = 15  Sales/Listings Ratio = 33%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $249,431

Paradise Real Estate: Listings =48 Sales = 32 Sales/Listings Ratio =67%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $308,882

East Extern Real Estate: Listings = 36 Sales = 19  Sales/Listings Ratio = 53%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $289,676

Conception Bay South Real Estate: Listings = 47   Sales = 28  Sales/Listings Ratio = 60%

Average Sale Price (12 month average): $255,683

St. John’s real estate market spent much of the past decade fluctuating between buyers and balanced market conditions.  These conditions characterized the resale residential sector 72 per cent of the period from 2000 to 2010 (36 per cent respectively).  Sellers held the cards just 28 per cent of the 11-year period—a fact that may come as a surprise, given the strong run up in average price in recent years.  The compounded annual rate of return for homeowners in Newfoundland  Labrador, based on average price from 2000 to 2010, was 8.14 per cent—ranking it fifth among Canada’s major centres and first among the Atlantic provinces ($99,525 vs. $235,341).  Newfoundland’s sales-to-new listing ratio hovered at 54 per cent during last decade.  Home buying activity has been solid at the outset of 2011, as Newfoundlander’s steadily regain confidence in Canada’s economic recovery and the brightening outlook for the province.

Several positive developments of late have bolstered optimism, the most substantial of which has been the Lower Churchill announcement.  Business confidence is high and non-residential building activity is up considerably.  Buyers have taken notice, moving off the sidelines, secure in the belief that the tide is turning.  Affordability continues to play a role in Newfoundland. First-time buyers are leading the charge, with sales between  $150,000 and $250,000 most active in Newfoundland, accounting for 36 per cent of all activity.

In St. John’s,  entry-level purchasers are driving the $250,000 to $350,000 price point.  The city’s newer subdivisions on the  peripherals are most sought-after, including areas such as Paradise.  Move-up buyers remain active.  However, in this  category, many transactions are conditional on the sale of another property.  Upper-end purchasers continue to make  their moves, with sales in the $500,000 to $650,000 price range relatively brisk.  Luxury homes in Clovelly Trails and  King William Estates remain very popular with affluent purchasers.

Days on market had been on the upswing across all price points post June 2010, but should begin to fall as absorption rates improve.

CMHC just released their First Quarter 2011 edition of  Housing Now – Major Centres – St. John’s.  You can view the entire PDF release here http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64199/64199_2011_Q01.pdf

Here are some of the highlights:

- High prices and an increasing inventory of unsold new and existing homes saw  housing market activity continue to slow during the fourth quarter of 2010

- During the October to December period, both new home construction and resale market activity registered declines.

- Average prices,  however, advanced compared to 2009, but remained relatively unchanged on a  month-over-month basis

- Residential construction activity declined moderately

- Total housing starts were down approximately six per cent, with 488 starts versus 520 in 2009’s fourth quarter

- The overall average new house price for the St. John’s CMA was $326,954

- 50 per cent of all new single-detached homes sold for more than $300,000 during the quarter

- decline in sales and increased inventory, positioned the market as buyers again during the fourth quarter

- buyers had a much broader choice of homes because available inventory  increased approximately 40 per cent in the quarter, including a 56 per cent surge in December

- Listings remained on the market for an average of 65 days

- Despite higher inventory, offers came in at approximately 96 per cent of asking
price

- The average MLS® residential price in Newfoundland was $238,696 during the October to December period – an increase of 12 per cent.

With only a small rise in inventory in 2010, the growth in prices in the existing home market was higher than expected (approx 15% since 2009). For 2011, average house prices are forecast to increase across Atlantic Canada from a high of close to four per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), three per cent in Nova Scotia (NS) and close to one per cent in New Brunswick (NB). Prices in Prince Edward Island (PEI) are expected to rise less than one per cent in 2011. Existing home sales are expected to decline modestly.

Sales declines will vary across Atlantic Canada from one per cent in NS, close to four per cent in NB and NL and nearly eight per cent in PEI.

Although the economic forecast remains positive, recent concerns regarding the global outlook have tempered the possibility of stronger growth in 2011.

For Newfoundland and Labrador, energy and mining development will continue to be the main source of future growth. Several major capital projects will continue to  inject stimulus into the local economy and contribute to a positive outlook.

Growth in commodity prices has also provided a lift to mining companies in the interior of the province. Stronger income growth compared to the other three Atlantic provinces has also helped support the level of consumer spending, as well as the stronger than expected level of housing activity. The fishing industry will continue to pose a challenge for Newfoundland’s rural economies,  but population losses will moderate over the forecast period due to improving economic conditions in St. John’s.  Natural declines in offshore oil production will restrain GDP growth, although increased royalties received by the province will offset the effects of production declines on economic growth overall.

(source: CHMC)

CHMC just released their latest housing report for the St. John’s Newfoundland Real Estate Market.  The Fourth Quarter 2010 edition of CMHC’s Housing Now – Major Centres – St. John’s can be accessed by clicking on the link below. http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64199/64199_2010_Q04.pdf or I have some clips of the report outline below.

“Recent price growth and an increasing supply of unsold homes had a cooling effect on the St. John’s housing market during the third quarter, despite growth in population, income and employment. During the July to September period, new home construction activity declined slightly, while resale market activity remained mixed, with sales declining and average
price advancing. From an overall historical perspective, the St. John’s area housing market was strong, but recent record housing market activity went unmatched in the third quarter.

Resale Market Favoured Buyers
Fewer sales and increased inventory,positioned the market as  buyers during the third quarter. In terms of resale market  dynamics, buyers had a broader choice of available homes and some sellers were forced to reduce the asking price on their  properties as the market shifted. Available inventory increased approximately 16 per cent in the quarter (23 per cent in August) and listings remained on the market for an average of 61 days, while prices continued to show gains over the July to September period of 2009. Despite higher inventory, offers came in at approximately 98 per cent of asking price. For the St. John’s area, there were 1,785 new residential listings during the third quarter compared to 1,795 during the same period in 2009.
Active listings averaged 1,796 a month during the quarter, versus 1,548 a month during the third quarter of 2009. The sales-to-active listings ratio averaged 20 per cent during  the quarter compared to 26 per cent during the same period in 2009, resulting in buyers’ resale market conditions.

MLS® Sales Declined, Prices Advanced
With fewer sales of existing homes and higher inventory available throughout the St. John’s area during the third quarter, the average MLS® residential price showed little change compared to the second quarter, but continued to advance compared to the same period last year. It reached another record level in the quarter peaking at $262,316 in the month of August. The number of MLS® sales declined 11 per cent with 1,069 sales compared to 2009’s third quarter sales of 1,197 units. The average MLS® residential price in the St. John’s CMA was 15 per cent higher than it was a year ago. Despite tepid sales activity during the July to September period, the average MLS® residential price climbed to $255,496 compared to $221,253 during the third quarter of 2009. The average price appears to have stabilized around the $250,000 level, as the recent momentum has begun to wane. The relative strength in the average MLS® residential price continued to be supported by positive economic conditions, as well as higher priced newly built home sales going through the MLS® system in the third quarter.
At the provincial level, there were 1,323 MLS® sales compared to 1,504 in the third quarter of last year. The average MLS® residential price in Newfoundland was $238,285 during the July to September period – an increase of 15 per cent.“

ST. JOHN’S, September 9, 2010 – Urban housing starts increased during the month of August, according to preliminary data released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). August’s housing starts totaled 179 throughout the St. John’s area versus 151 starts in August of 2009. There were 18 additional starts recorded outside the St. John’s area, for a total of 197 provincial urban starts compared to 190 last August. Year-to-date, starts remain positive, with 1,177 recorded in the St. John’s region versus 1,026 last year.
“The number of new homes started in August is in line with the current forecast and the expectation that new home construction will slow over the remainder of 2010,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “New home demand was steady during the first half of 2010, but will taper off in the coming months, due to recent price growth and record high home prices,” added Janes. In urban centres across Canada, total housing starts increased 12 per cent with 14,253 recorded in August compared to 12,734 during August of 2009.

Throughout Atlantic Canada, there were 847 urban housing starts posted versus 907 the previous August, a decrease of seven per cent.

The full press release can be found here.