Newfoundland 2008 Budget Highlights

April 30, 2008 · Filed Under Local St. John's · Comment 

The Newfoundland and Labrador Economy Highlights

  • Economic Performance 2007
    • Real GDP increased by 7.9% driven by exports of oil and minerals and consumer and government sector spending.
    • The unemployment rate fell to 13.6%, a reduction of 1.2 percentage points and the lowest rate in 26 years.
    • Personal income growth of 4.3% and personal disposable income growth of 5%.
    • Retail sales growth of 9.5%.
    • Increased residential construction investment of 9.9% with 2,652 housing starts.
    • Net in-migration of almost 2,000 people in last half of 2007.
  • 2008 Expectations
    • Real GDP forecast to decline by 2% due to lower offshore oil production.
    • Capital investment expected to increase by 15%. Combined investment in oil and gas projects estimated to be $1 billion for 2008.
    • Housing starts stable at 2,657 for the year.
    • Employment expected to increase by 1.5%, adding another 3,300 jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 12.4%, a further decrease of 1.2 percentage points.

MLS Trends St. John’s First Quarter

MLS Residential Sales Post Solid First Quarter

  • MLS® residential sales increased 14.3 per cent to 713 units compared to last year’s first quarter sales of 624 units
  • January, February and March MLS® sales were 236, 238 and 239, respectively and were held back by a lack of active listings
  • Driven by low inventory, the first quarter average MLS® house price jumped 13.6 per cent to a record $156,953 compared to $138,167 during the first quarter of 2007

Resale Market Classified as Sellers

  • The resale market headed quickly to a sellers classification last Fall and remained there throughout the first quarter of 2008
  • Average time-on-market trended lower during the quarter, strong price growth continued and many choice properties enjoyed multiple purchase offers
  • Current trends indicate the market will favor sellers once again during the second quarter, but an expected improvement in active listings may provide some relief for buyers

Active Listings Remained Low

  • After falling nearly a half by January, active listings rebounded slightly during February and March, but remained low, restricting unit sales growth accordingly
  • The supply of active residential listings averaged approximately 1,150 during the first quarter compared to almost double that number at 2,100 a year ago
  • First quarter new listings were near last year’s first quarter level of 1,600, while active listings retreated 45 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2007

Mortgage Rates to Remain Low

  • With U.S. recessionary pressures continuing, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut rates 50 basis points by June 10th
  • Accordingly, mortgage interest rates are expected to remain low in 2008 and start to creep higher in 2009 as investors gain more confidence in financial markets
  • One and five-year mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.25-7.25 and 6.50-7.50 per cent range, respectively, in 2008 and beyond

Canadian building permits jumped in October

December 6, 2007 · Filed Under Market Trends and Monthly MLS Stats · Comment 

RBC just released that Canadian building permits rose 6.8% in October, a much bigger increase than the consensus forecast for 0.7% rise and even faster than RBC’s estimate of a 3.5% gain. September’s level was revised higher and showed a 1.1% decline rather than the 1.7% dip in the preliminary report. The October increase put the level of permits closer to the record high levels recorded in May and June. Residential permits inched up 0.1% in October with higher permits for multi-units (+21.8%) largely offset by weaker demand for single-unit permits, which fell by 10.6%. Nonresidential permits rallied back, rising 19.3% after falling to a five-month low in September.

Dawn Desjardins, Senior Economist