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The sky is not falling nor are St. John’s housing prices
CMHC held a seminar this week discussing the outlook for Newfoundland for 2009 with regards to economy and real estate market and prices. As in most recent reports and news releases the message was the same: Newfoundland is expected to remain strong in 2009.
While most of Canada and the world are in doom and gloom, somehow Newfoundland is expected to escape the mayhem. I know we are somewhat protected being on an island, but I can’t see St. John’s getting away virtually unscathed. Then again it’s better to hear positive news then to hear the sky is falling on a daily basis.
In a quote from The Telegram’s article entitled “Local housing market, economy remain strong” Chris Janes was reported to say
“It’s still on the up and up locally in terms of our labour markets, economy, economic health overall, government’s fiscal situation, migration factors … and it’s just a lot of positive activity that’s hard not to be focused on,” Janes said following his address to a packed housing seminar in St. John’s Wednesday. “We still have very strong consumer spending, and that’s key to any province’s economic health and, right now in terms of all provinces in Canada, we have the strongest consumer spending of all.”
Where does this leave the St. John’s housing market……back to normal levels in my opinion. Resale markets are not as “hyper” as they were last year and new homes will start to taper off to the point where we’ll see more and more “spec houses”. If you remove last years 25% housing price increase, this year will be comparable to previous year before it…modest gains, balanced market, with the occasional multiple offer just to spice things up a little and keep it interesting.
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5 Responses to “The sky is not falling nor are St. John’s housing prices”
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Mortgage Rates
I agree fully with your last paragraph except the 25% housing increase. There is still nothing in my mind or in the City to justify a 25% increase in housing in one year. Know ones income jumped 25% last year other then the nurses. Just like the big spike we had last with oil, stocks, and housing prices so they fall once again. The numbers just don’t add up to maintain such high prices in homes with the state of the global economy.
The 25% in my opinion was from a lot of hype from the public and news media. We had a lot of talks of future development from oil projects and EVERYONE jumped on the bandwagon….locally and from afar. Pure supply and demand rules kicked in then. There was a lot of investments properties purchased from out west and they treated it just like a stock – buy on rumor, sell on news. Who’s at fault – Realtors? Builders? Media? Investors? Local Purchasers? Vendors? The finger can be pointed at all with valid reasons I think.
That begs the question, what will happen now when their is a good chance that buying will slow down significantly especially with knew housing construction? I know many people in the city and not many are in a financial position to pay $1000 mortgage or they are not willing too. Either way it does not look good for housing prices. But I think the next six months will tell which direction the housing market will go. I for one am looking but holding out for better deals. I will not buy a house 225,000 when just 2 years ago it was worth 135,000. Still with the amount of land in the tri-city region, I can’t bring myself to buy a 50-100 lot for $60000+. My opinion it is not worth it.
I concur. This seems to be general “chit chat” in the public. However I can’t see the prices dropping. Maintaining their current level.
Another question, why haven’t monthly rents increased yet? Vacancy rates are at all time lows (under 1 percent I believe) With lots of people “holding out” they need places to stay, wouldn’t that make it a good time to buy a 2-apt home? And then put more pressure on 2-apt homes creating more demand? Sounds like a circle effect happening.
I got an answer to you renting question, if they did go up, a lot of people would be homeless, remember peoples income did not rise 25% in the past year, but once it does, ya i can see renting rates go up. Also the majority of renters are students and there cash supply is usually limited by the student loans they get.